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Citi UAE's view on the financial market and the world of wealth today and tomorrow.
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Mid-Year Outlook 2024
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CIO Perspectives
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CIO Strategy Bulletin
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FX Insights
Mid-Year Outlook 2024
Renewed Growth, New Challenges: Building resilient portfolios
With rates higher for a little longer, geopolitical concerns, and volatile inflation data. How can investors build resilient portfolios in such a challenging time for markets?
In our Mid-Year Outlook 2024, Citi continues to advocate for a resilient balanced portfolio and sees opportunities and reasons to invest broadly across markets. Read more about our key observations.
CIO Perspectives ꟾ Week of 28th Oct 2024
Volatility During The US Elections Period
In the past two elections, markets’ volatility surged at the election nights as polling data drove traders to inaccurate conclusions. Our APAC Investment Strategist Calvin Ha, examines the markets and potential trade policies that can arise if either side wins.
CIO Strategy Bulletin ꟾ Oct 25th, 2024 By Citi Wealth Insights
Holding the Wheel Steady Ahead of US Election
Ahead of the US election – which might mean substantial changes in US policies ahead – we’ve updated global economic forecasts to provide a new baseline. Our world GDP estimates edge up. We continue to expect new record highs in US corporate profits next year and keep our global equity allocation 4.5% overweight this month (global fixed income and cash remain 4.5% underweight). For now, our overweight positions are generally concentrated in US assets in both equities and bonds.
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Weekly FX Focus ꟾ 22nd Aug 2024
CNYJPY – Same Trajectory Now, Divergence Later
The unwinding of the JPY carry trade has spread to other currencies such as the CNY which caused the CNYJPY pairing to go down in the same trajectory. However, due to monetary policy differences, the CNY and JPY might diverge over the medium term.
FX Perspectives | Sept 5th, 2024
Has the US dollar bottomed out?
The broad-based dollar index (DXY) have been in a downtrend since its peak in late September 2022. Much of its decline happened recently across a two-month period since mid-July. Our Head of FX Strategy, Jai Tiwari, explains the reasons for the sudden sharp drop and if the conditions are ripe for DXY to stabilize and possibly rebound from here.
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Global Strategy
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World Investment Navigator
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Middle East Strategy
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Citi Wealth Insights
Global Strategy ꟾ Quadrant | October 20, 2024
Forecast Update: Recessionless
Ahead of the US election – which might mean substantial changes in US policies ahead – we’ve updated global economic forecasts to provide a new baseline. Our world GDP estimates edge up. We continue to expect new record highs in US corporate profits next year and keep our global equity allocation 4.5% overweight this month (global fixed income and cash remain 4.5% underweight). For now, our overweight positions are generally concentrated in US assets in both equities and bonds.
Sustainable Investing Spotlight
Planting for tomorrow: Weaving sustainability into the path toward food security
Rising global food insecurity has come under the spotlight following a series of geopolitical shocks, including the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Food security concerns have also been compounded by the effects of a shifting climate and increasing evidence of damage caused by accelerating biodiversity loss and water scarcity. Amid concerns about immediate and long-term food security, agriculture policies are caught in the crossfire between short-term food security and sustainability.
World Investment Navigator – January 2024
- October 2023 price is gone, the opportunity remains.
- Markets still price in too high a probability of a March rate cut, in our view. Still, 150 bps of cuts expected in 12 months is not extreme.
- What has happened since OL24: Junk rally amid dovish Fed turn.
- How’s the broadening trade going?
- Health Care: the anti-obesity craze won’t stymie innovation.
- Yield curve is now very flat, and positively sloped between intermediate-to-long dated maturities.
- Intermediate IG still offer attractive “real” yields vs expected inflation with yields of about 5.15% for duration of about 4 years.
- USD: The recent squeeze up in DXY may partly be due to a rise in risk aversion related to the Middle East.
- Presidential Year Stock Market Returns.
- Market-cap vs Equal-weighted S&P 500 Over Time.
- China’s equity performance is uncorrelated with its GDP growth, while the property market has acted as a key source of wealth generation since 1997.
- Japan – Profitability, Investor Inflows, Currency Kicker.
Middle East Strategy ꟾ Oct 2024
Commodities: Balancing short-term risks with the longer view
Oil: Remains sensitive to geopolitical developments, yet despite ongoing tensions, prices remain below this year’s average. We believe the possibility of a serious supply disruption is limited and would instead draw focus to the longer-term decline in demand for oil.
Citi Wealth Insights
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